Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Military Juntas of the Twenty-First Century: Guinea
So there's a military coup in some little African country named after a flightless bird, or perhaps a unit of British currency...so what?
So... Guinea has the world's largest deposits of bauxite, the ore used to make alumina, which is then processed into aluminum. To illustrate the importance of Guinea to the international alumina market: during disturbances in 2007, the price of alumina jumped 76%. The country also has large deposits of iron ore, gold, and diamonds. Several multi-national corporations have multi-billion dollar extraction and processing projects planned, and other projects are already operating. There is a lot riding on control over these resources.
Gasps of horror as the junta announces, soon after seizing power, that it will be "cancelling all mining contracts". Interested parties include:
-Rio Tinto (British and Australian, world's 2nd or 3rd largest mining company), interested in building a $6 billion dollar iron ore project at Simandou (video). Their license to mine there, granted in 2006, was rescinded in August 2008, most likely because they were unwilling to pay additional bribes demanded by the Conte regime. Rio Tinto also owns Canadian aluminum company Alcan (the world's largest aluminum company) who has a stake in the Guinean national bauxite mining company (CBG), and is exploring its own alumina refinery. Rio Tinto has said the Simandou project, undertaken in concert with World Bank, has the potential to generate $10 billion dollars per year, and they had already spent more than $300 million to develop it. The value of this project was essential to Rio Tinto resisting a hostile takeover by BHP Billiton -- which leads us to our next interested party.
-BHP Billiton (Australian and British, world's largest mining company), co-majority stakeholder (33.3%) in the Guinea Alumina Corporation (which is 100% foreign-owned), as well as several other bauxite opertions. They had plans to build a $4.8 billion dollar alumina refinery. As noted above, they are attempted a takeover of Rio Tinto which would make their dominance of the mining industry unparalleled.
-United Company Rusal (Russian, world's second largest aluminum company), owns the Friguia Alumina Refinery, the purchase of which it was forced to renegotiate earlier this year by the Conte regime. The company is owned by Russian billionaire magnate Oleg Deripaska, who has faced some recent financial difficulties after being sued in British court by former Russian/Israeli business partner Mikhail Chernoy/Michael Cherney over shares in UC Rusal. Deripaska also had his visa revoked by the US State Department, and had ties to former Presidential candidate John McCain.
-Alcoa ( American, world's third largest aluminum company), owns a large stake in CBG (Rio Tinto Alcan and Alcoa both have a 45% stake in the Halco consortium, which in turn owns 51% of CBG - the Guinean government owns 49%). In July 2008, just before they extorted Rio Tinto over Simandou, the Conte regime replaced the existing Alcoa management of CBG.
-AngloGold Ashanti (British, South African, Ghanaian, large international gold miner), owns the Siguiri gold mine. The company was accused by Human Rights Watch of supporting a murderous group in the DR Congo in order to access a gold-rich area in that turbulent country.
-Benny Steinmetz (Israeli billionaire, invested in diamonds, real estate, and mining engineering projects through Bateman Engineering), several weeks before the coup claimed to have been granted half of Rio Tinto's Simandou area by the Conte regime.
check back for more later...
Military Juntas of the Twenty-First Century: Bangladesh
The results of 2008 are a big shift from the results of the last standing election in 2001. That election saw the right-wing BNP win 193 seats to Awami's 62, and the main Islamist party take 17 seats. In contrast, the 2008 elections see the Awami-led coalition take more than 260 to BNP's 31, and the Islamist party "almost wiped out". Note that there are 300 seats in the Bangladeshi parliament.
Between floods, poverty, cyclones, and military intrusions into politics, it seems unlikely that Bangladesh would be able to sustain democracy. And there certainly remains a possibility that the opposition parties will cause a ruckus and incite more violence. Hopefully the will of the people will be respected, and the "caretakers" will step aside as planned.
Hot off the presses: Uh-oh.
Bangladeshis line up to vote (courtesy of the CBC)
Monday, December 15, 2008
Ecuador Drops the D-Bomb
Are you a big fan of Rafael Correa? Do you support Global South debt relief? Will you buy a T-shirt, regardless of content, just because it is new and nobody else has it? If you answered "yes" to one or more of these questions, then pass 'GO', collect $14.99 from your parents' wallet, and go directly HERE.
Addendum (12/16/08)
The collective mouth of the Western financial world opens in shock and horror. A Third World country defaulting on foreign loans -- and this time it's not because their coffers have been licked dry by a corrupt banana dictator! A puny wanna-be socialist telling Wall Street bankers he's got better things to do with his money then pay them exorbitant interest rates! What nerve! We must teach him a lesson!
The Fitch Rating Agency slaps Ecuador with an across-the-board investment downgrade. Portfolio.com declares Correa "idiotic". Seeking Alpha ties the decision to an anti-imperialist 'Bolivarian' ideology. So this default decision was short-sighted and lacked pragmatism...right?
Wrong. Rafael Correa is no short-sighted populist. He has a PhD in Economics from the University of Illinois. His new foreign minister, Fander Falconi, has a doctorate in economics from la Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona. These are not men who lack awareness of the consequences of their actions. Correa's administration has been threatening to default on this "illegitimate" debt for over a year, and specifically included the power to do so in their September referendum. Everyone agrees the country retained, and retains, the ability to make these payments, as they have been doing for decades under both leftists and military juntas.
The debt default is part of a well-planned and forward-thinking economic policy. One goal of this policy seems to be the end of dollarization in Ecuador. Ecuador has used the dollar since 2000, when its local currency, the sucre, spiralled out of control. The dollar is no longer the monetary heavyweight it once was, and Ecuador is not alone in trying to escape the Dollar Zone. Another part of this policy is the assertion of a precedent in international North-South lending: Don't make deals with illegitimate governments, because those deals can be thrown out later.
I think Correa is also betting on a lot of the investors to bite on debt renegotiation. This debt has already been renegotiated twice before. However many of these investors are short on capital given the current climate, and Ecuador's ability to pay make renegotiation, even on very pro-Ecuador terms, much more attractive than any attempt to seize assets through the courts. So in this way Correa can take advantage of the economic glo-pocalypse to rid himself of burdensome debt servicing, set a strong precedent for poor debtor nations weaning themselves off the Washington Consensus, and all the while increase his local and regional popularity.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Progressive Challenge for the 21st Century, Part I
There are many challenges that lie ahead -- the ultimate over-stated understatement for this last leg of 2008. As a progressive, I look at how our current economic crisis intersects with our longer-lasting crises in health care, education, and affordable housing to cause and portend ruin for masses of working families. I shudder when I see unemployment rates rising, and can only imagine how many desperate people aren't even included in the already horrific figures because they have either stopped trying to find work, or are stringing enough out of part-time minimum wage jobs so that the ends of their economic belt might occasionally meet before rent is due. I burn to hear of top CEOs flying corporate jets to Washington to beg for bailout money, blaming unions for their troubles while laid-off autoworkers sit down with their spouses late at night, forced to choose between heating their homes and buying Christmas presents for their kids. And after I think of these things, I tend to remember who our next President is, and it gives me some relief from my anxiety. But I am not satisfied, because I am a progressive, and it is not in our nature to be satisfied.
The progressive movement stands for decency and fairness above all. It stands for a government which protects all its people, not just from military attack, but as well from hunger and illness. Progressives believe that government can serve as a force for good in society when it is led by those who will fight for the common good. We believe that a rising tide lifts all boats, and not that bigger boats will somehow lift the tide. The progressive movement has a vital role to play in this new century, not only to counter the influence of those jet-setting beggar executives and their pocket politicians, but to craft a whole new vision for how the world economy should function.
To do that we need passion, intelligence, and unity. But we also need honesty. It is easy to criticize the profit-idolaters and religious zealots. It is more difficult to point that same lens back at our own history and ideas. The progressive movement may have lofty ideals, but we have not always chosen the best means to reach them.
For nearly a century many progressives pushed Communism and Socialism as the answer to the problems of modern society. We advocated for Stalin and Mao even when we knew, or should have known, about their totalitarian madness. As an interlude, I urge readers to resist becoming defensive at this point. We must admit our weaknesses in order to understand them, and to not repeat the mistakes of the past. We celebrate(d) Castro and Che, Lenin and Trotsky, and countless Third World revolutionaries for their gall to fight against evil capitalists. We decided that governments, well-run, could fix all of our problems through legislation. We danced in the streets for the New Deal and the Great Society programs. When a problem arose, we applied our magic cure: more government spending. We demonized globalization and Wall Street. Now, wait just one second, you say -- this author calls himself a "progressive"? Sounds more like a Fox News pundit! The point I am trying to make here is that we were wrong to believe that government could solve our problems, and we were wrong to believe that the capitalist system is inherently evil. Government should be limited and capitalism is okay...Rush Limbaugh is popping pills and nodding his head. What is this madness?
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Friday, July 25, 2008
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Behold the Mighty Erratum Terrium Empire!
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Friday, April 25, 2008
Syria and North Korea: It's Getting Nuclear Up In Here
This whole incident clearly shows the complete and dangerous lack of foreign policy consensus within the Bush Administration, within the US government, and between the US and Israel. And let's be clear: this incident has much more to do with ongoing diplomatic negotiations than it does with the issue of non-proliferation. US intelligence officials have been quoted as saying they have "low confidence" that the Syrian facility was intended to produce material for nuclear weapons.
The Six-Party talks (US, China, North Korea, Russia, Japan, and South Korea) are aimed at buying off the North Koreans to dismantle their nuclear program. Some believe that the public presentation of these allegations are an attempt by some in the Bush Administration (and perhaps their Israeli allies) to damage the Six Party talks, and perhaps focus US [military?] attention on Syria -- and by proxy its ally Iran. Setting backs the talks would also give the Bush Administration's neo-con hawks (Cheney and Stephen "Where's Tibet?" Hadley) a big victory over their enemies at the State Department (Rice and Six-Party lead negotiator and Assistant Secretary of State Christopher "Asian People Love Me" Hill. However the White House has made no statements to the effect that the Six Party talks would be negatively affected by these allegations. Only Japan, a long-time opponent of concessions to North Korea, has signaled any kind of change coming.
Danger alert: It seems very possible that the public presentation of these allegations were instigated by Cheney, Hadley, and their underlings in the Pentagon -- with a clear intention to bypass not only Congressional oversight but Executive oversight as well. The idea that evidence of this importance was not given to the House Intelligence Committee is incredible. Republican Pete "Don't Stop Believin" Hoekstra, the ranking member on the committee and long-time WMD hunter went as far as to say that "...they [the administration] have really damaged the relationship between Congress and the administration." But this is not the first time the neo-cons have lied to Congress or the American people (see: US History, 2001-present). However this time it seems they have made the end-run around the Executive Branch itself. Let's take a closer look:
-According to the administration, Syria (state sponsor of terrorism) has been secretly constructing a nuclear facility for non-peaceful purposes with the help of North Korea (also a state sponsor of terrorism). I mean, at least one of them is gonna get invaded, right?! Lace up your boots and strap on those laser-guided missiles! Here's the White House Press Secretary:
"If Syria wants better relations with the international community, it should put an end to these activities...We have long been seriously concerned about North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its proliferation activities...through this process [the Six Part talks] we are working with our partners to achieve the verifiable de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."
Now wait just one second! What happened to "You're either with us, or against us"? The White House is sounding like...I never thought I would say this...like diplomats.
The CIA, relying as usual on foreign (in this case Israeli) human intelligence, is a pawn in this political game. This is not a new role for them -- read Legacy of Ashes by Tim Weiner.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Rogue Nation
Oh, and a side note to the short history of 'Koreastan': they were the first and only country to use nuclear weapons against another country.
Feel free to re-read this post. A little snack for thought.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Weekly Round-Up
And now for a Weekly Round-Up! Off we go!
RUSSIA
Dmitry "Putin Jr." Medvedev wins the presidential "election" in Russia. Widely understood that his victory was assured back in December when Putin announced that he would be United Russia's candidate. Junior's relations with Putin go back to the early 1990s, when both were working at St. Petersburg State University. They have worked closely together since, with Junior managing Daddy's presidential campaign in 2000 before becoming the chairman of Gazprom in 2002. Speaking of Gazprom, a few days after the election they cut gas shipments to Ukraine by 50%, citing $600 million in unpaid bills.
"But we never got any notices!"
"We sent three."
"But where did you send them to? Maybe you had the wrong address. I swear we never got them. Maybe it got stuck in with the junk mail. Oh man, where am I gonna get six hundred mil? Maybe I could ask my parents...no, they would just ask what I doing with all that gas. This blows."
CAUCASUS
Armenia erupts in violent protests over the results of recent election. Armenia and Azerbaijan re-ignite Nagorno-Karabakh dispute -- and who started it this time? Armenian gov't looking to refocus the anger of its citizens, or Azerbaijani gov't looking to exploit temporary Armenian weakness?
SUDAN
Violence on the border between North and South Sudan. The battle was between the SPLM, a Southern Sudanese remnant from the two-decade long civil war, and the local Misseriya tribe in Abyei, an oil-rich region. The 2005 peace agreement seems to be holding, but many are saying its demise is only a matter of time.
AMAZONIAN JUGLE
Colombian forces strike into Ecuador, killing a senior FARC commander and others. Ecuador mobilizes its troops to the border, as do Colombia and Venezuela. All diplomatic connections are severed. War of words erupts between Colombian President Uribe and Venezuelan President Chavez. No shots fired as of yet. Bet on Colombia and Venezuela stepping up support for dissident and rebel groups within each other's borders. However, real war is unlikely as commercial trade ties between the three countries continue unabated.
KURDISTAN*
Turkish forces enter, and a few days later, exit Northern Iraq. They strike at Kurdish rebel organizations -- but, of course, mostly kill innocent civilians. The US mutters some light condemnations, but overall seems to have given its assent.
UNITED STATES
More primary elections for the Democratic Party. According to the media, the media loves Obama, and the media now thinks that perhaps it has loved him too much. So the media will now hold round tables and talk shows to decide exactly how much it should love him. John McCain has yet to embarrass himself publicly. But there's no time like the first time to...
ErrTerr's odd-makers say:
744-1: Make out with his wife on stage a la Al and Tipper
55-1: Make out on stage with someone who he thought was his wife
54-1: Turns out that person was Karl Rove
15-1: Back up over a shopping cart while driving the Straight Talk Express
8-1: Get caught stocking up on Metamucil at Costco
1-1: Run first TV ad of general election with endorsement from Andy Griffith
*Erratum Terrium does not, we repeat, does not recognize Kurdistan as an independent state. We also do not recognize the cultural and culinary merits of Jamba Juice. It is overrated in our opinion. Please send Kurdistan and Jamba Juice-related death threats to our regular email address. Death threats must be typed into the body of the email. We will not read attachments.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Reflections on the day of remembrance for Dr. Martin Luther King, 2008
What does it mean, then, to have a national holiday for a man who was an opponent of the national government? And what does it mean to celebrate a man whose vision, now forty years old, is barely closer to fruition than it was on the day he was assassinated? These questions, I believe, point to the great strengths and to the great weaknesses of our society. We must take pride in those strengths, but at the same time acknowledge our weaknesses -- not as unnecessary grime due to the "others" in our society, but as a real part of our identity.
Dr. King was fought and feared, not just by stereotypical racist segregationists, but by the 'liberal' establishment as well. Robert Kennedy himself signed the order to begin FBI wiretapping of King. King's Riverside Church speech against the war in Vietnam earned him the ire of the 'liberal media' Washington Post, Time Magazine, and New York Times. Lyndon Johnson once referred to him as a "hypocrite preacher". Dr. King advocated for democratic socialism and serious social and economic reform. It took fifteen years to pass a bill in Congress creating a national holiday, and it was only in 1999 that the last state (way to go, New Hampshire) joined recognition of the holiday. Senator Jesse Helms, the strongest opponent of the holiday, publicly called Dr. King a Communist and a sexual predator and still went on to win three more terms (thank you, North Carolina). And here lies one great social strength: our ability to function despite polarizing differences, allowing all sides to speak their mind and receive recognition. We did not choose to forget such a polarizing figure; we simply debated, peacefully, until one side got its way. Having a holiday for Dr. King is only one example. Here free speech is not a right begrudged by a wary elite, but instead a celebrated pillar of our national identity. We are able to subsume our hatred for the Other's opinion, religion, or values, under this blanket of freedom. Diversity does not threaten our national identity, rather it fortifies our belief that we are special for being able to accept these differences. This is no small achievement. One need not look far in the foreign headlines to find countries torn to shreds by diversity.
And yet despite the stability of our progress over the last few decades, we have done little to erase the social and economic problems that racked the days of Dr. King. Despite the efforts of thousands of well-intentioned bureaucrats and activists, we still live in a country where class mobility is shrinking, the income gap is growing, health care and higher education are inaccessible to the poor, and great gleaming walls of prejudice still stand between racial and ethnic minorities and their dreams. Poor people, seduced by the military with rarely-heard promises of a better life, are still dying in unnecessary wars -- fighting for a country in which, no matter how many 'gooks' or 'towelheads' they killed, they will still be judged based on the color of their skin and the content of their wallet.
So this is America: Freedom and Inequality for all. A land where you are free to speak your mind, just so long as you understand that your opinions are worth less than they would be if you were wearing a more expensive suit and a lighter tone of skin. A land where theft and exploitation are accepted, as long as you do it with a pen instead of with a gun. This is America. So where do Dr. King and his legacy fit in? We must struggle to not let our history define us; we must instead seek to define its place in our struggle for self- and national improvement. Dr. King fought for social equality, but he would not want to see a nation of people yoked to the beam balance. Improvement isn't about getting rid of the "bad" elements, because that divide is never clear. The "good" and the "bad" are part and parcel. It is because of our insistence on freedom that inequality persists. And it is because of how secure the elite feel that they allow such freedom among the masses. We should not rid ourselves of the racists or the corporate raiders, because all of us are prejudiced and all of us would exploit the "other" if it sufficiently benefited ourselves and our families. We, personally and nationally, are all responsible for everything "good" or "bad" that goes on in our society.
Where, then, do we go from here? Do we accept the status quo, the permanence and necessity of the Yin and the Yang, and go about our business? Or is there a path to action without anger, to change without destruction? In lieu of any futile answers, I will quote the eloquence of Dr. King:
"We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with a lost opportunity. The "tide in the affairs of men" does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out desperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: "Too late." There is an invisible book of life that faithfully records our vigilance or our neglect. "The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on..." We still have a choice today; nonviolent coexistence or violent co-annihilation.
We must move past indecision to action. We must find new ways to speak for peace in Vietnam and justice throughout the developing world -- a world that borders on our doors. If we do not act we shall surely be dragged down the long dark and shameful corridors of time reserved for those who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight.
Now let us begin. Now let us rededicate ourselves to the long and bitter -- but beautiful -- struggle for a new world. This is the calling of the sons of God, and our brothers wait eagerly for our response. Shall we say the odds are too great? Shall we tell them the struggle is too hard? Will our message be that the forces of American life militate against their arrival as full men, and we send our deepest regrets? Or will there be another message, of longing, of hope, of solidarity with their yearnings, of commitment to their cause, whatever the cost? The choice is ours, and though we might prefer it otherwise we must choose in this crucial moment of human history."
(Another blog's take on MLK Day here.)
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Hotspot: Kenya
Kenya is seen by many as a stable democratic stronghold in an otherwise chaotic and despotic area of Africa. Neighbored by Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan, its political and economic progress over the past years has been remarkable. It was the country that housed refugees, not created them. It was a country that rose from the ashes of harsh British rule and decades of dictatorship to become the favored nation of the West; its aid dollars and its tourism. However this status is at serious risk as a result of violence sweeping the country following the December 27 presidential and parliamentary elections.
Over 300 people have been killed so far in post-election violence. Much of this violence seems to have an ethnic basis, pitting the politically advantaged Kikuyu tribe against the Luo and other minorities. Violent attacks, looting, militia roadblocks, and police clashes with protesters have swept through the country. In one particularly horrific incident, 89 people were burned alive in a church in Eldoret. According to the UN, there are now over 180,000 IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) in Kenya, and thousands more have fled to neighboring Uganda.
What are the causes of this sudden and terrible transformation? Let us take a look at Kenyan history, both past and present.
The area now called Kenya has a human history dating back millions of years, to the days of homo habilis and homo erectus. It has since played host to a variety of homo sapiens ethnic groups, including the Cushitic, Nilotic, Bantu, and Arab peoples. The Swahili language developed as a result of this linguistic amalgam; a need for a common language among merchants and prospective husbands. At various points the region suffered from colonization attempts by the Portugese, Germans, and British. It was the British who finally surrendered to local rule in 1963, whereupon Jomo Kenyatta became the new nation's first president. The years preceding independence had seen great bloodshed with the British exerting full military pressure to crush the Mau Mau rebellion from 1952-1960. Out of this chaos came the strongman Kenyatta and his Kenyan African National Union party. One party rule lasted from 1963 until 2002, through the reigns of Kenyatta and Daniel Arap Moi (1978-2002). In 2002 Arap Moi was defeated by current president Mwai Kibaki, a former economist, and his National Rainbow Coalition. 2002 marked the first time in nearly forty years that power had changed hands in Kenya. Despite the lack of political freedom, the Kenyan economy had flourished, becoming a huge tourist destination and recipient of Western aid. The second economy, made up of unofficial and undocumented employment, grew as well, providing jobs for the masses in Kenya's teeming urban centers. Corruption remains entrenched -- but in this part of Africa, if corruption is your biggest problem, then you are quite lucky.
Which brings us to the December 27 election. Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement, was challenging Kibaki for the presidency. Raila seemed to have momentum going into the election, and the initial vote counts were going his way. But then the counts shifted, and on December 30 Kibaki was declared the winner. Within an hour he had himself sworn in for a second term. EU election monitors began murmuring about fraudulent vote counts and, as word got out, protests by Raila's supporters began. Raila declared himself the winner of the election and demanded a recount. Within days the international community was convinced that the vote counts were false, and Kibaki's own people began deserting him. His election commission chief said that he was not sure if Kibaki had won. His attorney general called for an independent investigation. Meanwhile violence sweeps the country, and neither Kibaki nor Raila makes a move to bring about reconciliation. The BBC has an excellent break-down of recent political events here.
What seems to be appearing here is a choice between democracy and stability. Kibaki obviously has a strong desire to stay in power, and he is probably still the candidate favored by the U.S. and Britain. It seems that Kibaki's strategy is to clamp down on major protests, and wait until people decide that they would rather have stability than democracy. Raila benefits from continued unrest, as it brings the attention of international observers who lend substance to his claim of election fraud and puts pressure on Kibaki's government. Herein lies the problem: Both leaders think they will benefit by waiting. Meanwhile the Kenyan people are being chased from their homes, killed in the street, starved by lack of supplies or employment, and ethnic rivalries are bursting with rage through the seams of a once-peaceful nation.