Hotspot: Kenya

Kenya is seen by many as a stable democratic stronghold in an otherwise chaotic and despotic area of Africa. Neighbored by Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan, its political and economic progress over the past years has been remarkable. It was the country that housed refugees, not created them. It was a country that rose from the ashes of harsh British rule and decades of dictatorship to become the favored nation of the West; its aid dollars and its tourism. However this status is at serious risk as a result of violence sweeping the country following the December 27 presidential and parliamentary elections.

Over 300 people have been killed so far in post-election violence. Much of this violence seems to have an ethnic basis, pitting the politically advantaged Kikuyu tribe against the Luo and other minorities. Violent attacks, looting, militia roadblocks, and police clashes with protesters have swept through the country. In one particularly horrific incident, 89 people were burned alive in a church in Eldoret. According to the UN, there are now over 180,000 IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) in Kenya, and thousands more have fled to neighboring Uganda.

What are the causes of this sudden and terrible transformation? Let us take a look at Kenyan history, both past and present.

The area now called Kenya has a human history dating back millions of years, to the days of homo habilis and homo erectus. It has since played host to a variety of homo sapiens ethnic groups, including the Cushitic, Nilotic, Bantu, and Arab peoples. The Swahili language developed as a result of this linguistic amalgam; a need for a common language among merchants and prospective husbands. At various points the region suffered from colonization attempts by the Portugese, Germans, and British. It was the British who finally surrendered to local rule in 1963, whereupon Jomo Kenyatta became the new nation's first president. The years preceding independence had seen great bloodshed with the British exerting full military pressure to crush the Mau Mau rebellion from 1952-1960. Out of this chaos came the strongman Kenyatta and his Kenyan African National Union party. One party rule lasted from 1963 until 2002, through the reigns of Kenyatta and Daniel Arap Moi (1978-2002). In 2002 Arap Moi was defeated by current president Mwai Kibaki, a former economist, and his National Rainbow Coalition. 2002 marked the first time in nearly forty years that power had changed hands in Kenya. Despite the lack of political freedom, the Kenyan economy had flourished, becoming a huge tourist destination and recipient of Western aid. The second economy, made up of unofficial and undocumented employment, grew as well, providing jobs for the masses in Kenya's teeming urban centers. Corruption remains entrenched -- but in this part of Africa, if corruption is your biggest problem, then you are quite lucky.

Which brings us to the December 27 election. Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement, was challenging Kibaki for the presidency. Raila seemed to have momentum going into the election, and the initial vote counts were going his way. But then the counts shifted, and on December 30 Kibaki was declared the winner. Within an hour he had himself sworn in for a second term. EU election monitors began murmuring about fraudulent vote counts and, as word got out, protests by Raila's supporters began. Raila declared himself the winner of the election and demanded a recount. Within days the international community was convinced that the vote counts were false, and Kibaki's own people began deserting him. His election commission chief said that he was not sure if Kibaki had won. His attorney general called for an independent investigation. Meanwhile violence sweeps the country, and neither Kibaki nor Raila makes a move to bring about reconciliation. The BBC has an excellent break-down of recent political events here.

What seems to be appearing here is a choice between democracy and stability. Kibaki obviously has a strong desire to stay in power, and he is probably still the candidate favored by the U.S. and Britain. It seems that Kibaki's strategy is to clamp down on major protests, and wait until people decide that they would rather have stability than democracy. Raila benefits from continued unrest, as it brings the attention of international observers who lend substance to his claim of election fraud and puts pressure on Kibaki's government. Herein lies the problem: Both leaders think they will benefit by waiting. Meanwhile the Kenyan people are being chased from their homes, killed in the street, starved by lack of supplies or employment, and ethnic rivalries are bursting with rage through the seams of a once-peaceful nation.