The Widening Gyre

Somalia in Hindsight

• January 25 -- The US Ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, has apparently met with Sheik Ahmed about reconciling with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Stratfor's analysis suggests that Ahmed does not have the ability to curb the insurgency because he was only the political chief of the Union of Islamic Courts (ICU). Sheik Aweys, the military leaders, is more radical than Ahmed and is still in hiding. Stratfor says that if Ahmed does make a deal with the TFG, it will fracture the remnants of the ICU and drive the radical elements into a deeper insurgency. While this may be true, I think a reconciliation between Ahmed and other moderates in the ICU with the TFG will be a positive step for Somalia. The most important thing is that the TFG can convince both Somalia and the international community that it is moving towards stability and reconciliation. The EU and the AU are depending on the semblance of reconciliation to send their financial aid and peacekeeping troops, respectively. Inside of Somalia this will limit the strength of the Islamist insurgency and some of the unrelated tribal violence. I would argue that perception is much more important than reality here -- if people believe that conditions will improve in Somalia, they will be much less inclined to let the country slip back into anarchy. So far the TFG has been cool to negotiations with Ahmed: Prime Minister Gedi has said that he will talk to Ahmed, but only in Somalia. Gedi refused to meet with Ahmed when the two were in Nairobi. Coincidentally, Kenya, no friend of the ICU, will not send Ahmed back to Somalia because they believe he will be killed there.
  
• January 22 -- A top leader of Somalia's Islamists handed himself in to Kenyan authorities. Sheik Ahmed has always been something of a moderate, and there is some hope that his taking part in a unity government will bring an end to the budding Islamist insurgency. However this assumes two things: one, that he still has a good deal of influence with the insurgents, and two, that the TFG will offer him a role that he would accept. I would say that the first assumption is likely true. Even if some of the insurgents are more radical than him, having the leader of the ICC either in the TFG or publicly allied with the TFG would take a lot of steam out of the insurgency and the likelihood of other moderates to support it. However the TFG has so far been opposed to the idea of reconciliation. The EU has attempted to push the TFG towards reconciliation by tying their redevelopment funds to the creation of a broad-based government which would include Islamists.
  
• January 9th -- The US attacked positions in southern Somalia near the Kenyan border, hoping to kill suspected Al-Qaeda members who they believe were responsible for the 1998 embassy bombings and who they thought were in the area. Right now I'm sure the high school English teacher inside of you is screaming "run-on sentence!". But where my error was only minor and grammatical, the error by the US was serious and geopolitical. If anyone had doubts about the tryst between Ethiopia, the TFG leadership, and the US, those doubts are now removed. Reuters reported that the US air strike killed between 22 and 27 people, and I think if one of them was an Al-Qaeda terrorist we would have heard something. TFG President Yusuf, who arrived in Mogadishu yesterday in a convoy of invading Ethiopian troops, said the US had a right to launch the strikes. The TFG Deputy Prime Minister Hussein Aideed, who recently called for Ethiopia and Somalia to merge into one country, said that the US had the Somali government's "full support". Minister Aideed is the son of former anti-US warlord Mohammad Farah Aideed. According to the BBC, the idea behind the raid is to support the TFG and scare the Islamists into abandoning their plans for an insurgency. If these Islamists are as radically anti-Western as the US says, don't you think an attack by the US would only strengthen their resolve and draw more recruits? And if they aren't that radically anti-Western, why risk inflaming tensions by sending the US military to a country which is already on the edge of chaos? This attack is especially strange considering that US envoy Jendayi Frazer recently called for moderate Islamists to be included in the TFG -- a proposal which was rejected by President Yusuf. American helicopter gunships are welcome, but their political advice is not. What happened to soft power and public diplomacy? What has the American Empire become?
• January 7 -- Violence has continued to flare across the country, especially in Mogadishu. Residents are protesting against the Ethiopian presence and have refused to give in their weapons to the forcible disarmament drive announced by the TFG. This drive was then abruptly "postponed" by the TFG Prime Minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi. Thousands of refugees have fled the country, adding to already large refugee camps(PDF map) in the neighboring countries. The remnants of the ICU have vowed to heed Al-Qaeda's call for jihad. Good News? Sheik Sharif Hassan Aden, the leader of the TFG parliament who also has ties to the ICU, has called for peaceful cooperation and reconciliation. He seems to think that Sheik Ahmed, the somewhat-moderate leader of the ICU will heed his call. (Update: Speaker Aden was dismissed by the Parliament on January 17th). Jendayi Frazer, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, has been busy trying to get African nations to pledge troops to a peacekeeping force; so far Uganda has pledged 1000 towards a projected 8000 necessary. The International Contact Group for Somalia, made up of the US, the EU, and several African countries, met in Nairobi on Friday to find a way to create and finance a joint African Union/Inter-Governmental Authority on Development peacekeeping force.

Unions of the World, Unite!

Unions of the World, Unite! You have nothing to lose but your shrinking memberships and declining political significances...The British trade union Amicus announced it has signed solidarity agreements with two unions in the US and one in Germany -- the United Steelworkers, the International Association of Machinists, and IG-Metall. Amicus is already preparing to merge with the British Transport and General Workers Union in May 2007.

The Amicus General Secretary Derek "Blame British Dentistry" Simpson had this to say:
"Our aim is to create a powerful single union that can transcend borders to challenge the global forces of capital and I envisage a functioning, if loosely federal, multinational trade union organisation within the next decade."

I don't care that Simpson is a former Communist and a self-described "lieutenant of the left". But if he wants to do business here, he better start spelling 'organization' properly.

To my knowledge this is the first major step towards a significant multi-national union. It seems only logical that unions would begin to expand globally; they're already pretty far behind the corporations. Are we going to be seeing multi-national strikes in the near future? Probably not, because national economies are still fairly autonomous and so spreading a strike across borders would serve little purpose. But the globalization of unions could affect outsourcing, as unions will be able to apply more pressure on corporations and governments to keep jobs from going overseas.

Interesting to me that this story isn't mentioned in the US media at all. There's a sprinkling of British and Australian stories. And yet at the time of publish there are two hundred and seventy one articles on Google News about Marilyn Manson's divorce. C'mon now, when was the last time he even made a record? Jeez.

What's Happening In Not-USA (Somalia Edition)

If You Missed It: Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), a loose arrangement of warlords based on the Transitional Federal Charter adopted in Nairobi in February 2004, has re-taken control of the country backed by the US-trained Ethiopian military. Most of the country (excluding the northern autonomous regions of Puntland and Somaliland) had been under control of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The ICU militias have mostly vanished, and may be preparing for an insurgency. The African Union, with support pledges from the EU and the US, is trying to put together a peacekeeping force.

A Little History: Somalia has been without a functioning government since 1991, when Dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown. The country has been torn apart by clan-based strife and warlordism, disastrous for a region already among the poorest in Africa and victimized by many floods and droughts. There were several interventions by outside forces. The UN, backed by the US, put together several operations beginning in 1992 to help feed starving Somalis and end the civil war which had resulted from Siad Barre's removal. However these operations were ended in 1995 after the US pulled its support following the infamous "Black Hawk Down" incident in the Battle of Mogadishu. The Ethiopians also intervened in 1993 and 1996 to defeat Islamists trying to establish regional religious governments. The two countries have a history of bad relations relating to territorial claims and religious differences (Somalia is Sunni Muslim, Ethiopia is Christian).

Back to the Now: Violence has continued to flare across the country, especially in Mogadishu. Residents are protesting against the Ethiopian presence and have refused to give in their weapons to the forcible disarmament drive announced by the TFG. This drive was then abruptly "postponed" by the TFG Prime Minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi. Thousands of refugees have fled the country, adding to already large refugee camps(PDF map) in the neighboring countries. The remnants of the ICU have vowed to heed Al-Qaeda's call for jihad.

Ayman Al-Zawahiri gets my vote for "Euphemiser of the Week": suicide bombings are now "martyrdom-seeking raids".

Good News? Sheik Sharif Hassan Aden, the leader of the TFG parliament who also has ties to the ICU, has called for peaceful cooperation and reconciliation. He seems to think that Sheik
Ahmed, the somewhat-moderate leader of the ICU will heed his call. Jendayi Frazer, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, has been busy trying to get African nations to pledge troops to a peacekeeping force; so far Uganda has pledged 1000 towards a projected 8000 necessary. The International Contact Group for Somalia, made up of the US, the EU, and several African countries, met in Nairobi on Friday to find a way to create and finance a joint African Union/Inter-Governmental Authority on Development peacekeeping force.

Best Case Scenario: The international community is able to get a substantial peacekeeping force ready within a few weeks and the Ethiopians agree to withdraw all of their troops. The major leaders of the ICU agree to cooperate with the TFG in exchange for amnesty. The security situation can be stabilized enough that people are willing to disarm. Redevelopment money begins to flow into the country and can be effectively used to rebuild the infrastructure and supply the population with basic necessities. In time, the refugees will be able to return.

Will It Happen? I'll take the easy way out and say it's too early to tell. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops is a prerequisite for a real legitimate government to be established. However if there are no peace keepers, one, the Ethiopians may not withdraw, and two, if they do withdraw it may lead to a resurgence of some powerful warlords. The Catch-22 is that a lot of the support for the peacekeeping operation will be dependent on progress towards political reconciliation. In addition the US will be very displeased if elements of the ICU are allowed back into politics and may withdraw their support. There is also no telling how successful a peacekeeping operation will be even with international support -- the theory is that an African-led operation will be more welcome than a UN-led operation, but in Somalia this is no guarantee.

The two major problems are the lack of resolve by the international community and the lack of a broad appeal to unity within Somalia. There are bound to be hiccups in any attempt at bringing peace to Somalia, and these two problems may tip the scales towards a return to anarchy. I believe that peace is achievable if these two deficiencies are rectified. The international community, both the US/EU and the African nations, need to commit themselves to helping Somalia even if the price is high and their national interests are unconcerned. The leaders of the TFG and the ICU need to find common ground to which they can draw popular support and prevent another spiral into anarchy.

Bush Admin Musical Chairs

And the music never stops...It looks like I was off on the next administration official to step down. Harriet Miers beat my odds and has resigned as White House counsel. I'm surprised she stayed on after that aborted Supreme Court nomination. I still say Snow is next to lay his badge and gun on the captain's desk. Zalmay Khalilzad is going to be nominated replace John Bolton as UN Ambassador. Laura Rozen and Cutler have more on the new appointees.

It appears as if Bush is trying to make his Last Stand in Iraq. Juan Cole is very positive on the new team members, but I'm not sure that even the best and brightest can do much as long as Bush & Cheney Co. are running the show.

Speaking of the Prez, I think he may have been reading Erratum Terrium yesterday and saw the IM convo between Merkel and Rice. Today, after a joint press conference with Merkel, he said: "no back rubs". I wonder if shes softening her "creep" stance on Dubya.

Politics in Not-USA: Why would the IDF launch an raid on the West Bank town of Ramallah on the same day as Israeli PM Olmert was meeting with Egyptian President Mubarak to discuss the peace process? Apparently the general in charge, General Naveh, did not inform Defense Minister Peretz before the raid took place. If this is true, there is either strong internal dissent in the IDF or in the Israeli cabinet. Also, new UN Secretary General Ban described the raid as "an act of violence". At least he said something.

Roundup of the Global Triumvirate

IN CHINA...

• The Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology just released their first report on global climate change. Their conclusion: it exists and it is being caused by human activity. China is also the second-biggest producer of greenhouse gases (A gold star for anyone who can guess who Numero Uno is). China is expected to take the top spot sometime in the next twenty years. They signed the Kyoto Protocols in 2002, but their status as a "developing country" means they are not required to reduce emissions immediately. Is this report a sign that the Chinese leadership is preparing to take some serious steps in the green direction? At least their leaders admit that global warming is taking place.
  
• One major problem that the world faces is the dilemma between producing energy cleanly and producing energy cheaply. The high prices of oil and gas exacerbate this dilemma; because more money has to be spent to buy these resources, less can be spent on finding cleaner alternatives. A major problem in the energy market is that demand is inelastic - slow to respond to price changes, especially increases. At the same time, the politics of producer nations and the position of oil and gas resources in volatile areas causes the prices to change rapidly. The clean versus cheap dilemma can only be solved through a broad coalition of producer and consumer nations. What we need is a new Kyoto, or at the very least for everyone to sign onto the old one.
  

IN RUSSIA...

• President Putin signed an order putting all arms exports under the control of one state-owned company, Rosoboroneksport. The CEO of this company is, surprise, surprise, another ex-KGB officer who served with Putin in Dresden during the Cold War. This is another example of Putin bringing all major enterprises under state control, his version of "de-privatization". Russia is a major arms exporter to Africa and Latin America. To tie this in with other recent events, the CEO of Rosoboroneksport, while head of a different arms exporter, supplied the Ethiopian military with the planes and helicopters that they used to take over Somalia this past week.
  

IN THE US OF A...

• We have a shifty Director of National Intelligence. John "Case Closed" Negroponte, former ambassador to the UN and to Iraq, is reportedly leaving his top intelligence post to become Deputy Secretary of State. That position was vacated in July by Robert "Cool 'Stache" Zoellick, who left to work for Goldman Sachs. This has been another in a long line of shifts and resignations in the Bush Administration since the occupation of Iraq began -- not to mention the indictment of Scooter Libby. The only question is: who's next? I would put 2-1 on Tony "I Don't Know" Snow (courtesy of WaPo's Dana Milbank), and 4-1 on Condoleezza Rice.
• And we have a shy Secretary of State. She has been asked in several interviews why the US will not talk to Iran, and has given the same lame excuses. She says that going to the table with Iran would be no more than pleading for help. Is she implying that we have no leverage over the Iranians? When given the Soviet Union analogy for negotiating with enemies, she says that "I don't ever remember sitting down and talking to the Soviet Union about how they could help us secure stability in Western Europe". Tell me if I'm wrong, but I think she's comparing Western Europe during the Cold War to Iraq in the present day. Funny because I don't remember the West Germans attacking our troops stationed there with mortars and roadside bombs. And I seem to recall that there were functioning, democratic governments in Western Europe. I hope this comparison doesn't really reflect how Secretary Rice sees Iraq. But back to Iran: why not talk to them? In the interest of humor, I've prepared a hypothetical instant messaging conversation to represent the situation as accurately as possible:

doctorleeza81: hey
theMerkelator: hey
doctorleeza81: hows things?
theMerkelator: fine
theMerkelator: OMG, i have to tell u something
doctorleeza81: OMG what is it?
theMerkelator: you remember that guy i was talking to at lunch yesterday?
doctorleeza81: u mean the qt with the beard?
theMerkelator: yeah, his name is Ali Larijani. he totally asked me about you
theMerkelator: he wants to talk to you condi
doctorleeza81: what did u say?
theMerkelator: i gave him ur number
doctorleeza81: but what about george? hell kill me if he finds out
theMerkelator: you totally deserve better than george
theMerkelator: remember when he tried to give me a back rub? what a creep
doctorleeza81: i dont know. ive heard a lot of bad stuff about that Ali guy
doctorleeza81: Ehud told me hes friends with that weirdo Mahmoud
theMerkelator: no way they just have homeroom together
theMerkelator: condi u should just talk to him, it cant hurt
doctorleeza81: maybe
doctorleeza81: sorry gtg george is calling me. bye angie!
theMerkelator: c u lata!

And readers, c u lata 2!


Peace (if everything else fails)

Happy New Year!

I could write a lengthy post about all that went wrong in 2006: the current debacles in Somalia, Iraq, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Israel/Palestine, or the use of energy as a weapon by Russia, or the failed idiot-perialism of the Bush Administration, or the backwards and repressive steps taken by supposed democracies around the world, or the increasing cross-cultural preponderance of apocalyptic beliefs, or the break-up of Britney Spears' marriage, or the increasing rigidity of international alliances, or the decreasing confidence in the United Nations, or the continuing willful obliviousness by both states and corporations to the dangers of global warming.



But instead here's a kitty.


Happy 2007 to everyone, may this year fulfill all of our wishes.



Plus: The French are against the movement of time.