What's Happening In Not-USA (Somalia Edition)

If You Missed It: Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), a loose arrangement of warlords based on the Transitional Federal Charter adopted in Nairobi in February 2004, has re-taken control of the country backed by the US-trained Ethiopian military. Most of the country (excluding the northern autonomous regions of Puntland and Somaliland) had been under control of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The ICU militias have mostly vanished, and may be preparing for an insurgency. The African Union, with support pledges from the EU and the US, is trying to put together a peacekeeping force.

A Little History: Somalia has been without a functioning government since 1991, when Dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown. The country has been torn apart by clan-based strife and warlordism, disastrous for a region already among the poorest in Africa and victimized by many floods and droughts. There were several interventions by outside forces. The UN, backed by the US, put together several operations beginning in 1992 to help feed starving Somalis and end the civil war which had resulted from Siad Barre's removal. However these operations were ended in 1995 after the US pulled its support following the infamous "Black Hawk Down" incident in the Battle of Mogadishu. The Ethiopians also intervened in 1993 and 1996 to defeat Islamists trying to establish regional religious governments. The two countries have a history of bad relations relating to territorial claims and religious differences (Somalia is Sunni Muslim, Ethiopia is Christian).

Back to the Now: Violence has continued to flare across the country, especially in Mogadishu. Residents are protesting against the Ethiopian presence and have refused to give in their weapons to the forcible disarmament drive announced by the TFG. This drive was then abruptly "postponed" by the TFG Prime Minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi. Thousands of refugees have fled the country, adding to already large refugee camps(PDF map) in the neighboring countries. The remnants of the ICU have vowed to heed Al-Qaeda's call for jihad.

Ayman Al-Zawahiri gets my vote for "Euphemiser of the Week": suicide bombings are now "martyrdom-seeking raids".

Good News? Sheik Sharif Hassan Aden, the leader of the TFG parliament who also has ties to the ICU, has called for peaceful cooperation and reconciliation. He seems to think that Sheik
Ahmed, the somewhat-moderate leader of the ICU will heed his call. Jendayi Frazer, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, has been busy trying to get African nations to pledge troops to a peacekeeping force; so far Uganda has pledged 1000 towards a projected 8000 necessary. The International Contact Group for Somalia, made up of the US, the EU, and several African countries, met in Nairobi on Friday to find a way to create and finance a joint African Union/Inter-Governmental Authority on Development peacekeeping force.

Best Case Scenario: The international community is able to get a substantial peacekeeping force ready within a few weeks and the Ethiopians agree to withdraw all of their troops. The major leaders of the ICU agree to cooperate with the TFG in exchange for amnesty. The security situation can be stabilized enough that people are willing to disarm. Redevelopment money begins to flow into the country and can be effectively used to rebuild the infrastructure and supply the population with basic necessities. In time, the refugees will be able to return.

Will It Happen? I'll take the easy way out and say it's too early to tell. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops is a prerequisite for a real legitimate government to be established. However if there are no peace keepers, one, the Ethiopians may not withdraw, and two, if they do withdraw it may lead to a resurgence of some powerful warlords. The Catch-22 is that a lot of the support for the peacekeeping operation will be dependent on progress towards political reconciliation. In addition the US will be very displeased if elements of the ICU are allowed back into politics and may withdraw their support. There is also no telling how successful a peacekeeping operation will be even with international support -- the theory is that an African-led operation will be more welcome than a UN-led operation, but in Somalia this is no guarantee.

The two major problems are the lack of resolve by the international community and the lack of a broad appeal to unity within Somalia. There are bound to be hiccups in any attempt at bringing peace to Somalia, and these two problems may tip the scales towards a return to anarchy. I believe that peace is achievable if these two deficiencies are rectified. The international community, both the US/EU and the African nations, need to commit themselves to helping Somalia even if the price is high and their national interests are unconcerned. The leaders of the TFG and the ICU need to find common ground to which they can draw popular support and prevent another spiral into anarchy.