Guatemala is a land of incredible beauty; cloud-drenched highlands, black sand beaches, rainforests thick with life, and ancient volcanoes. The Mayan culture lives on in the majority indigenous population, a testament to the longevity of tradition. Tranquility seems to float through the populace, characterized by general friendliness and a laid-back attitude. Guatemala is also in danger of becoming the Americas' newest failed state.
Two major reasons for state failure should be familiar to anyone reading news about Latin America: guns and drugs. Massive amounts of guns were shipped into the country during the 40 year "internal conflict", and when the conflict "ended" in 1996 little was done to reduce the number of arms floating around the country. Drug trafficking has long been an issue, but spiraled out of control around 2007 when Mexico began a full-fledged war on drug cartels -- who then shifted operations to Guatemala and found a perfect transport point. The cartels and the drug-based economy they have spawned is incredibly well-armed and more than willing to use violence when necessary. The Guatemalan government, never a paragon of efficiency or transparency, offers next to nothing in the way of law enforcement. Impunity is the key word -- this is a country where might clearly makes right, whether on a dark rural highway or in a well-lit courtroom. Justice, in the mind of the people, lies not with corrupt or blackmailed prosecutors and judges, nor with swiss cheese jails, but with hand-made revenge.
Guns, drugs, and lack of law enforcement are powerful proximate causes that has led Guatemalans towards a failed state. The current government of Alvaro Colom has weakened significantly over the past few months, and in the past weeks has taken to accusing the opposition of trying to bring down his government -- which has been true since he took office in 2007, but the current calls reek of desperation. The head of the UN-supported CICIG prosecutor's office quit in June, castigating Colom for failing to make any significant law enforcement reform and for appointing an Attorney General linked to the drug cartels (whose "election" was summarily nullified by the Constitutional Court). The spiraling violence, while most intense in Guatemala City, has touched all parts of the country. The coming presidential elections in 2011 will bring a period of even more violence, and will without a doubt endanger the future of democracy in Guatemala. If elections only bring bloodshed and never bring any real social change, why would anyone want more? There is real popular support for a "benevolent" dictatorship in Guatemala -- and the person best placed to become such a dictator is Otto Perez Molina, the so-called "Mano Dura" (Strong Hand), a general with dirty hands from the internal conflict and who retains links to violent groups. This is a situation which will get worse, and may never get better.
The proximate causes for Guatemala's unraveling are fairly clear, and steps can still be taken by domestic and international actors to deal with these issues. But there are deeper wounds that need to be dealt with before the country can truly move beyond its current troubles.
The internal conflict began in the late 1960s, pitting a small left-wing intellectual guerrilla movement against a government that clearly and without apology represented the interests of the wealthy landowners. Much of this movement grew out of support for earlier left-wing presidencies of Arevalo and Arbenz, the latter being overthrown in 1954 by the CIA. The guerrillas tried to link their movement to the interests of the poor indigenous population, with some success but without the force strength or unity to ever pose a real threat to the government. Despite the weakness of the insurgency, the government decided to wipe out all the guerrillas and anyone who might support them. This murderous offensive continued well into the 1980s, and its after-effects still linger today.
According to UN investigators, more than 200,000 people were killed during the internal conflict, with over 90% of the murders committed by government military and para-military forces (which often included indigenous men conscripted and forced to kill their neighbors). Violence against women, including rape, was common. Almost every Guatemalan was touched by these crimes in some way -- a family member or friend was victimized, or committed crimes -- and none of them have forgotten. These experiences reaped untold psychological damage, tearing apart families and communities, unraveling centuries of social trust, and leaving hundreds of thousands to go on with their lives with gaping sections of their psyche missing. Yet there was no efforts at real national reconciliation, no official programs to deal with the years of violence, no tribunals for those responsible, and no justice for the victims. In 2010 the first conviction was handed down for his role in the infamous Dos Erres massacre, but the vast majority of those who ordered and led human rights abuses live free without fear of prosecution (at least one is a member of Congress). The subject of the internal conflict is almost entirely ignored in Guatemalan schools.
Dealing with criminals and victims from the conflict would be incredibly difficult at this point. It would require an unprecedented political commitment and a powerful, independent investigative and judicial apparatus, as well as immense international and domestic support. But until past crimes and past victims are given justice, there can be no hope for justice elsewhere in the country. Peace is not simply the absence of public violence; it requires a personal sense of safety, a sense that the beasts of chaos have been banished underground. The new generation of Guatemalans may grow up without the violent memories of their parents, but they will inherit a culture of violence ready to explode at the slightest provocation and rain ash over the people among the volcanoes. How can we possbily have Peace if the beasts of chaos live in our own minds?
See the International Crisis Group's recent report on Guatemala for more information.