Oh No, Not More Energy Politics!

revised 7pm Pacific

Yes, more energy politics! Let's recap. Turkmenbashi died early Thursday, and the possibility of a succession struggle (which as far as we can tell is not occurring) made Europe nervous about its supply of natural gas. Most of this natural gas comes from Turkmenistan through Russia under the control of Gazprom. On the same day Gazprom signed deals with the foreign majors (Shell, Mitsui, and Mitusbishi) in the Sakhalin II oil-gas project to take a 50%+1 majority stake in the project. The project had been under threat of a multi-billion dollar lawsuit relating to environmental damages.

Now the updates. Turkmenistan is stable, although the consensus is that acting President Berdymukhamedov is not a permanent choice. Possibilities include top military and intelligence officials as well as Niyazov's son Murat. The continuing supply of Turkmen gas seems assured. Europeans can breathe a sigh of relief.

Under Turkmenbashi, the country's official foreign policy was neutrality. In terms of energy, this meant waffling back and forth between exports to Russia and support for the EU/US Trans-Caspian pipeline, part of a long string of pipelines which would bring natural gas from the east side of the Caspian Sea into Europe and avoid Russia and Iran. Here is a map, the design of which was outsourced to several resourceful third-graders:



Russia was obviously against this idea, and used the ambiguous legal status of the Caspian Sea (It has yet to be decided which of the five coastal countries controls which area, and that decision will depend in large part on whether the Caspian is classified as a sea or as a lake) to delay its development. While the new emerging order in Turkmenistan has pledged to continue the neutrality of Turkmenbashi, it remains to be seen whether the next regime will find it prudent to ally with Russia in the hopes of gaining a powerful regional friend. Keep your eye on the news wire on this one.

Just minutes after Gazprom signed the agreement to take a majority stake in the Sakhalin II project, Putin announced that the environmental issues which has threatened the project were "as good as solved". There is certainly no doubt now that the threat of a lawsuit was no more than a wedge for Gazprom to force its way into the project. The responses of the foreign majors say as much. A Shell spokesman said that "it is an acceptable outcome ending a period of uncertainty for Sakhalin-II". The Mitsubishi president said that although Russia was still an attractive place to invest, the company faces “difficult and incomprehensible aspects” there. While one might expect a Western company to be confused by heavy government-industry cooperation, the Japanese are used to this kind of activity. The fact they find Russia "difficult and incomprehensible" says a lot, especially considering the Japanese are also not known for making negative opinions like this known to the press. There was also no attempt by Putin to hide how politically motivated the threat of a lawsuit was. The Kremlin is sending the same message it sent with the destruction of Yukos: You're either with us or you're against us. And you don't want to be against us. Funny, those words sound so familiar...

Now we move our attention to the Caucasus region. On Friday Georgia signed an agreement with Gazprom to buy gas at $235 per 1000 cubic meters in 2007. The current price is $110. Russia and Georgia have, to put it mildly, not been getting along recently. On October 2 Georgia detained four Russian soldiers on suspicion of espionage. In response Russia cut postal, rail, and air links with Georgia and deported thousands of ethnic Georgians. Gazprom threatened to cut off gas supplies if Georgia did not agree to a higher price, only $230 at the time. However Georgia had two aces up its sleeve which seemed to prevent Russia from completely exploiting them. One was membership in the WTO, which Russia sought. Georgia said that it would allow Russia in if the sanctions were ended. The other ace was the ability of neighboring Azerbaijan to provide most of the gas Georgia needed through its huge Shah-Deniz field. However where Georgia only had a high pair, Russia had a full house. Putin was able to get a pledge from Bush to support Russian accession to the WTO in exchange for Russia's UN Security Council vote for sanctions on Iran. Clear US support for Russia joining the WTO makes Georgian opposition basically a moot point. The Azerbaijan gas supply also became a problem as "technical difficulties" pushed back the beginning of gas flow to Geogia, which was supposed to begin on Friday. Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli said it may take weeks to fix the problem. Therefore Georgia was faced with a winter without gas and no way to get Gazprom to lower the price. The effects of this price increase will be a weaker Georgian economy and thus a loss of support for the pro-Western, anti-Russian Georgian government. Is it possible that Russian agents are responsible for the "technical difficulties" at the Shah-Deniz facility? I would say that considering Gazprom's obvious Kremlin connections it is a strong possibility.

Another hint at this possibility is in the announcement by the Azeri president that they may not buy gas from Gazprom anymore. Gazprom is demanding the same $235 price from Azerbaijan. The Azeris are hoping they can meet their energy needs locally. However this will mean that they will have much less to export to Georgia and through the BTC pipeline to Western Europe and the US. This pipeline was seen as a strategic victory for the West over Russian dominance of Caspian energy reserves. However if the Azeris are going to stop buying Russian gas (which is actually Turkmen gas, to tie everything together), this multi-billion dollar pipeline may find itself as empty as Bush's presidential library.

And if we needed another reminder of Gazprom's growing power in the Eurasian energy market, they signed a contract with Europe's largest gas provider Gaz de France extending the two companies' gas supply contract until 2030. For the first time Gazprom will now provide gas directly to some European consumers.

Update: According to Georgian TV, there was a "terrorist attack" on the Azerbaijan-Georgia pipeline on Wednesday. This has not been confirmed by Georgian or Azeri officials. Is this the cause of the "technical difficulties" at the Shah-Deniz field? Or are there two separate problems?

Correction: The BTC pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey's Mediterranean coast through Georgia only transports oil. The gas pipeline runs through the same countries but currently ends in Central-Eastern Turkey in a city called Erzurum. The hope is that this pipeline will be connected to Europe through the Nabucco pipeline.


Peace (if everything else fails)

Energy Politics Round-Up

Two big events: Turmenistan "President" Niyazov dies and Gazprom gains control over the Sakhalin-II project. Niyazov is a relic of the Soviet era, an absolute dictator whose reign makes Kim Jong-Il look like Thomas Jefferson. He completely closed his country and created a cult of personality that extended to renaming months and meteorites after himself and his family. He wrote a book, the 'Rukhnama', which was made required reading in schools. He had a huge gold statue made of himself in the capital Ashgabat which rotated to face the Sun. He renamed himself 'Turkembashi', which means "the artist formerly known as Niyazov". Well, actually it means "Father/Head of the Turkmen people", but he's so wacky that I would believe just about anything. But this Daffy Duck Dictator did have one thing going for him. His country happens to be sitting on top of a smörgåsbord of natural resources, especially natural gas. Which is unfortunately why his death is so important.

Right now Turkmenistan only supplies gas directly to Russia (through Gazprom) and its southern neighbor Iran. The US tried to get Turkmenistan to sell its very cheap gas to them through two routes - one south through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, and the other across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan where there is now a pipeline running through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean (the BTC pipeline). However it seems Gazprom channeled its inner Nancy Reagan to convince Niyazov to 'just say no' to the American offers. Russia sees Central Asia, especially any part of it with oil or gas, as part of its 'sphere of influence'. They don't seem particularly worried about the power vacuum left in Turmenistan, and I'm sure the new president Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov (anagrams anyone?) will be making a trip to Moscow in the near future. However no one really knows what is going on inside Turkmenistan. The lack of foreign media presence makes it hard to know if there are any problems. Any instability or civil conflict could draw the US and Russia into direct confrontation.
The presence of radical Islamic groups in the region only complicates matters further. If Turkmenistan does enter a chaotic period, gas supplies to all of Europe could be seriously interrupted.

The Sakhalin-II project, located at the eastern edge of Russia (just north of Japan), was the last major energy project without Russian representation. There are now none, as Gazprom bought fifty percent plus one share from the consortium of Shell, Mitsui, and Mitsubishi for 7.45 billion dollars. This was after the Kremlin threatened to sue the foreign majors for up to 30 billion dollars for environmental damages. Gazprom is the Russian state gas company which has become a behemoth corporation in the past few years. Its chairman of the board, Dmitri Medvedev, is also Putin's first deputy prime minister. Alexei Miller, the deputy chairman, is also an old ally of Putin. The signal the Kremlin sends with these strong-arm tactics is this: we welcome foreign companies to invest in Russia, but you are not to make big profits by selling our natural resources.

Both of these events are part of rising tensions between the US and Russia. Points of agreement are rapidly vanishing. I would be surprised if Russia votes for any sanctions on Iran, no matter how much the Europeans water down the resolution. I am worried that we are entering a stage similar to the one preceding World War I in Europe, with the US playing England and Russia playing Germany. And who benefits from US-Russian conflict? China.

Welcome Back Ortega!

I know this would have been better a few weeks ago, but I just thought of it now. Sorry about the square Ortega, thats the best my high-tech imaging software (go...Paint!) could do.

Iran's Elections

In all this hullabaloo about Iran's role in Iraq and the pros and cons of engaging the Islamic Republic, something slipped everyone's attention. Iran held some very significant elections on Friday, and the results surprised a lot of people. All the attention was focused on Ahmadinejad (who has not, by the way, sent an RSVP to the Erratum Terrium Hanukkah party. Mahmoud, if you're reading this, we're still saving a seat for you next to the latkes.) Apparently no one asked the people of Iran if they supported his extremist posturings -- and apparently they don't. Ahmadinejad and his mentor/Supreme Leader-aspirant Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi did not fare well. The old-school conservatives, led by Rafsanjani, seemed to be the big winners. Rafsanjani , the former President who lost in the 2005 presidential election, was in first place at last count in the election for a seat on the powerful Assembly of Experts. Mesbah Yazdi was in sixth place at last count, enough votes to stay in the Assembly but not the result which would catapult him into a position to become the Supreme Leader upon the passing of the elderly Ayatollah Khamenei. The conservatives were able to re-establish control over Iranian political trends which had been swinging towards the Ahmadinejad/Mezbah Yazdi fundamentalist camp ever since the 2005 Presidential elections where Ahmadinejad won a surprising victory based largely on populist appeal and connections to hard-line militias.

There were two bodies being elected Friday, one being the very important Assembly of Experts, and the other the an election for local council seats. The Assembly of Experts is a group of high clerics who select (and can remove) the Supreme Leader and have strong control over the legislative and appointment process. The other top clerical group, the Council of Guardians, has control over who is able to run in these elections. The Council of Guardians removed many of the fundamentalist candidates (as well as the reformist candidates) before the election. Nonetheless, the success of Rafsanjani and the low finishing of Mezbah Yazdi are genuinely representative of the Iranian's preference for the former over the latter. The local councils are relatively unimportant (at least in terms of foreign policy), but the elections are fairly democratic and therefore serve as a political barometer. Mezbah Yazdi's list also did poorly in these elections in many places, although it seems his group still retains popularity in some of the more rural provinces.

One can make a comparison between this Friday's elections in Iran and the November elections in the US. There is also a striking and surprising similarity between the leaders. Both Ahmadinejad and Bush have conducted provocative foreign policies (to say the least) bringing international rebuke and have failed to reduce threats to the national security of their respective countries. They have done so while promising reforms to bring economic growth. Growth in both countries has been modest at best, and many of the lower classes they promised to help have only sunk deeper into poverty. Both have worked hard to increase the power of the executive at the expense of all other political bodies. Both have significantly furthered the agendas of the religious fundamentalists in their respective countries. Both also were elected with the aid of populist appeal, portraying themselves as "men of the people" running against political insiders: Ahmadinejad as the poor son of a blacksmith, Bush as the "regular guy" from Texas.

It must also be noted with irony that Iran appears now to be one of the most democratic countries in the region. This is not to say that Iran is a paragon of liberal democracy, but unlike most countries in the Middle East and the world they have a functioning mechanism for peaceful political competition and for the voters to regularly choose between a limited number of those competing groups. And personally I find it a little embarrassing that while it took the American people six years to turn against Bush, it only took the Iranian people a year and a half to catch onto Ahmadinejad.

A little more Iranophilia: How cool is it that the candidates for the Assembly of Experts have to pass rigorous tests just to qualify for the election? I would love to make candidates for the US Congress pass the Foreign Service test. I think I'm salivating a little just thinking about it.

My point in all this about democracy in Iran is that this country is not our enemy. This is a country with a beautiful culture and a rich history that they are rightfully very proud of. When Bush goes out of his way to call them "evil", they take it personally. Anyone would. Especially when, despite the US-backed overthrow of the democratically elected Mossadegh government in 1953, our continued support for the repressive Shah, and our supply of arms (including chemical weapons) to Iraq during their eight-year war, the Iranian people have continued to express goodwill towards the US. After 9/11 they did not dance in the streets, they held a solemn candlelight vigil. Read the accounts of numerous American and Western journalist who have traveled through the country.

I am not saying we should simply not attack Iran and try to engage them "constructively" on Iraq. I am saying we should go out of our way to make Iran our newest friend. And not just so they'll bring over some delicious Iranian cuisine. There are three main reasons why forging close links with Iran is good for the US strategically. One, we need to make it clear that we are not against Islam and that we support the coexistence of Islam and democracy. We cannot continue to insist that the only good democracy is one which doesn't produce Islamist governments. Our continued vociferous opposition to Islamists of all types only adds fuel to the anti-US/anti-Israel radicals' fire. Good relations with Iran would not only set a good example of our openness to Islamism, but it would help with relations with their clients in Iraq, Lebanon, Western Afghanistan, Palestine, and possibly Somalia (at least according the recent UN report). Second, good relations with Iran will help us economically, relating mostly to their enormous stores of oil and natural gas. Lower (but relatively stable) energy prices brought on the introduction of Iranian supplies into the regular (non-sanctioned) market would be very helpful for our economy and would also act against attempts by Russia to corner the Eurasian energy supply market. Third, a stable and responsible Iran on the world stage could be very helpful for solving regional problems and act as a counterweight against other aggressive powers. Again, Iran has its finger in the pot of almost every country in the vicinity. It certainly can't be in our interests to antagonize them any further, especially considering the results of this election.

One last diatribe: Why isn't the Iranian election mentioned more often in the news? I've barely heard or seen anything about it. What, the media, lazy? Can't be. I guess the recent issue of TIME has put them all in a self-indulgent tizzy.



Peace (if everything else fails)

Sectarian Violence Engulfs Erratum Terrium!

The wave of sectarian violence has caused major changes to Erratum Terrium. The three sects can no longer live with each other, and thus a federalized website has been established. It can only be hoped this will bring peace to this unstable and unreadable region of the blogosphere. The reactions from the sectarian leaders has been described as "schizophrenic". The leader of the northern Humorist sect praised the agreement, saying everything would be fine as long as no one bothered him. He then went on to tell several bad jokes. He promised that the Humorist sect will continue to deliver low-quality mockeries of the news to Erratum Terrium. The leader of the centrally-based Journalist sect was more guarded in his response, wary of inflaming tensions with his southern Blogger neighbors. The two sects have been at war over the future of Erratum Terrium, with the Journalists demanding more in-depth studies of global affairs and the Bloggers wanting more irascible rants and bull-headed pronouncements (or 'fatwas', as they call them). It can only be hoped that the new federalized format will allow the fulfillment of the official December 2006 'Doubling of Readership' goal (from two to four!)

In this chaotic environment, a radical and possibly foreign group in the Blogger sect was allowed to access the website and post the following:

Attention Conspiracy Nuts!
In past few years several prominent international figures have been the target of assassination attempts: Rafik Hariri, Viktor Yushchenko, Hassan Nasrallah, Pierre Gemayel, Alexander Litvinenko, and possibly Ismail Haniyeh. Based on this and absolutely nothing more, we would like the be the first to propose the theory that Senator Tim Johnson, Democrat of South Dakota, was also the target of a recent assassination attempt. Senator Johnson recently had intensive brain surgery after suffering "stroke-like symptoms". If he was unable to serve, a replacement would be appointed by Michael Rounds, the Republican governor of South Dakota -- thereby giving control of the Senate back to the Republicans through the tie-breaking vote of Dick "Dick" Cheney. To quote Gov. Rounds completely out of context: "Tim Johnson...is...not a lawmaker, not a...friend...I thought about his wife..." Not very gubernatorial language, if you ask me! The cover-up attempts have been widespread, attributing Senator Johnson's illness to a condition called Arteriovenous Malformation (AVM), which apparently afflicts 300,000 other Americans. According to the purported right-wing smear rag Medical News Today [Note to the MNT legal department: Don't even think of suing me, I'm not worth anything] most of them "don't know they have the condition". Oh, how convenient! Would the Republicans really go that far to regain control of the Senate? The crystal ball (one of those black plastic ones that you shake) says that I should ask again later, which I will. Until then, keep (conspiracy) nutting it up!

I am very sorry for that breach of security. According to the Erratum Terrium security department, the laptop with the ultra-super-secret Blogger ID and password was lost. Luckily the laptop did not contain the personal information of hundreds of thousands of trusting citizens. That information is on a different Erratum Terrium laptop.

Before we end this broadcast, the editors of Erratum Terrium would like to wish a very Happy Hanukkah to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. You are cordially invited to celebrate the holiday with us. Make love, not war. Wipe latke grease off your face, not countries off the map.



Peace (if everything else fails)

First (1st) Edition - December 3, 2006

We wish to welcome you to the first edition of Erratum Terrium, an online foreign affairs review devoted to providing the masses with a superior tool in the search for truth in the murky waters of international relations. The world has become a very complicated place where political, social, and economic trends spread with ease across national and continental boundaries. Globalization has exceeded the boundaries of free trade agreements to become a total social force, bringing people of very different cultures together. It is more important than ever that the citizens of the world understand what forces shape this new world order; how it can affect them, and more importantly, how they can affect it. We hope that this project can assist in creating that understanding. We welcome the full spectrum of humanity to join us - whatever languages you speak (as long as one of them is English), whatever amount of knowledge you have about foreign affairs, whatever your political opinions are - in this quest for knowledge and understanding, and hopefully through that, a chance at a better world.



We regret that this first edition is not as meaty as was planned.* There are only three sections: one on the uprising in Oaxaca, one on Russian President Putin, and one an op-ed by a famous historical figure. Each edition, published weekly, will usually consist of several thematic sections, two in-depth studies - one of a state, one of a non-state (a world leader, important organization or movement, etc.), and some special sections consisting of merciless tactical strikes on the funny bone. This edition, regrettably, does not include any of the thematic sections. Look forward to those in the Second (2nd) Edition. Please feel free to comment on any and everything you find on this site. Do not spare us your wrath. Wrath is the hamster which spins the wheel of Erratum Terrium. Also please visit the links you will find on your right (-->). Those sites are run by experts and professionals, while this one is run by those who can only be accurately described as illiterate peasants. How did we write all of this, you ask? Come back for the Second (2nd) Edition for the answer to that question, and much, much more. Until next time...



Peace (If everything else fails)





*The relative meatlessness of this edition is due to an illness which struck the editor this weekend. This illness is suspicious because of its rarity in the climate in which he lives. Therefore it can only be assumed that he was poisoned by certain elements who do not want us to expose what we know. What makes the poisoning even more puzzling is the fact that we don't know anything. Except for the fact that we don't know anything. As of yet the investigation into who poisoned the editor has stretched into seven continents, under several oceans, and, on several occasions, into another dimension. If you think you have any pertinent information, do not hesitate to call random numbers and tell whoever answers the phone what you know. One of those people might be us. Sound as crazy as possible. That will prevent the information from falling into the wrong hands.

State: Mexico - Oaxaca

Protesters join hands at the Women's March on November 19
in Oaxaca City


Mexican Government Crushes Resistance in Oaxaca


This week incoming Mexican President Felipe Calderon was sworn in amidst turmoil in the Mexican Congress as members of opposition party tried to block his inauguration. The leader of the opposition PRD party, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, lost in the July 2 election but continues to assert that the election was fraudulent despite many fairly objective reports to the contrary from groups inside and outside of Mexico. Lopez Obrador held his own shadow inauguration a few days before Calderon. All of this chaos in the Mexican government is representative of the fractured state of Mexican society. Antipathy runs deep between different regions of the country, between different socio-economic classes, and between different racial/ethnic groups. Compounding the difficulties is that many of these divides lie along the same lines. These troubles are no more apparent than in the southern state of Oaxaca.

Oaxaca has long been known as a top tourist destination. It combines a rich indigenous culture with beautiful geography. Americans and Europeans poured in, hoping for a taste of "authentic" Mexico. But this romantic image of Oaxaca covered over a much harsher political reality. The state's residents are very poor compared with other regions of Mexico. There is a small group of powerful Oaxacans who control most of the wealth and benefit most from the tourism. The poor, largely indigenous (having Zapotec or Mixtec heritage) population is underrepresented and underemployed. The state government is ruled by the old dictatorial PRI party and Governor Ulises Ruiz.

In May 2006 the Oaxaca section of the national teachers' union (SNTE) began a strike demanding that their paltry salaries be increased. This strike, small at first, became a lightning rod for popular discontent with the poor economic situation and especially with Governor Ruiz. His re-election was widely considered fraudulent. He attempted to end the strike by sending in state police to evict the strikers from the central Zocalo plaza. Many student and other union protesters responded by joining the teachers and fighting off the state police. Then together they seized most of Oaxaca City under the banner of the Popular Assembly of the People of Oaxaca (APPO).

This was unacceptable to both Governor Ruiz and former President Fox. They moved, separately, to send troops into the city. Fox sends in the Federal Police (PFP), who manage to retake the city by the end of October. They are aided by Oaxacan police and paramilitary groups operating in plainclothes. This is accomplished through armed intimidation and violent repression of protesters. There were widespread accusations of human rights abuses by the PFP and the other agents of repression. Many opposition members have "disappeared", some reputed to be held in prisons near Mexico City. While not all of these reports can be confirmed, there have been well-documented human rights abuses in the past by the Mexican government in Oaxaca as well as its neighbor state Chiapas where the Zapatista rebellion continues. This past abuse lends a great deal of weight to the many claims of current abuse.

The events in Oaxaca have great significance for Mexico, but also shed some light on the political situation in the Americas as a whole. The Calderon administration must find a way to deal with the growing wealth disparity in Mexico, otherwise it will most certainly face both more uprisings like the one in Oaxaca and additional support for the Zapatistas. The regional and economic divide between the south and the more affluent north must also be addressed. There is certainly a potential for government opponents in the south to ally with the growing leftist political shift in South America. Addressing this divide will also be important for the U.S.-Mexican relationship, as many immigrants to the U.S. come from the southern states. Improving the economic situation there will be important to solving immigration issues between the two countries.

In our opinion, the Oaxacan uprising reflects a growing dissatisfaction with the neoliberal economic policies promoted by the U.S. and its allies, most notably the free trade agreements NAFTA and CAFTA. Mexico has no choice but to interact with the U.S. But the countries which to not share a border seem to be moving as far as they can from the U.S., short of physically leaving the continent. Recent elections in Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil, and Chile have brought to power leaders who share two major characteristics. They are all leftists who have moderated their socialist policies to please moderate elements in their countries. They are also all moving towards eliminating permanent economic and political links with the U.S. The wide success of all candidates who possess these characteristics shows the popular support throughout Central and South America for this new pragmatic political doctrine. It is the rejection of the Monroe Doctrine by the very people it is supposed to be protecting. The people of Central and South America see self-reliance as the only way forward - no more dependence on the U.S. or Russia. Whether these new leaders will be able to sustain economic growth and heal ethnic divides within their countries remains to be seen.

Non-State: Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (Part I)

Putin as a youth


PART I: The Rise to Power

Fifteen years ago Vladimir Putin was a rector at Leningrad State University in St. Petersburg, living in the city he had grown up in and working at the university which had given him his law degree in 1975. He had just quit the KGB a few months earlier during their ill-advised support for the 1991 putsch against Gorbachev which brought an end to seven decades of Communist rule in Russia. The Soviet system was in chaos; old guard elites were desperately trying to hold onto whatever influence they had left and a new generation of young entrepreneurs was licking their lips in anticipation of feasting on the carcass of the USSR. Vladimir Putin was afloat in this mess, politically ambitious and well connected in the KGB but with no means of advancement. One can imagine he watched on TV with his wife, Lyudmila, and his two young daughters, Maria and Katya, as Gorbachev resigned on Christmas Day 1991 and Yeltin was sworn in. Fifteen years later Putin is no longer a spectator on the world stage. He has become the singular most powerful person in Russia. He has brought stability through autocracy and made Russia a genuine Eurasian power again. Part I of the study of this key world figure will go briefly into his biography to understand how he became so powerful and what forces drove his remarkable rise to power. The upcoming Part II will look at how he consolidated power within Russia and how his reign impacts the rest of the world.

Putin was born in 1952, the only child of a factory foreman. He was a good student, graduating from the law faculty at Leningrad State University at only twenty-three, and was also an excellent martial artist, practicing judo and sambo (a distinct Russian martial art). It was in his studies at Leningrad State University where he first met Anatoly Sobchak, a professor there who was (mildly) critical of the Soviet state. Sobchak had his doctoral thesis rejected for “ideological reasons”. However Sobchak had caught the eye of one up-and-coming Soviet apparatchik: Mikhail Gorbachev. This relationship was to help Sobchak, and consequently Putin, in later years. Putin was recruited into the KGB after finishing his degree, serving in the 1980s in Dresden, East Germany. This, he admitted, had been his dream job ever since watching spy movies as a child. He quit the KGB during their support for the 1991 coup, a politically savvy move in uncertain times. However he continued doing intelligence work while at Leningrad State University. He had evidently not lost touch with some important people in the security services.

Putin’s ambition soon took him away from the rector position and into the administration of Anatoly Sobchak, the new post-Soviet mayor of St. Petersburg. Sobchak had, probably with Gorbachev’s support, become a member of the People’s Congress of Deputies between 1989 and 1991. He became a leading pro-Gorbachev figure and grew to great national prominence during the 1991 coup. He led protests against the coup plotters and persuaded the army not to enter St. Petersburg. After the resignation of Gorbachev, Sobchak was arguably only behind Yeltsin in national popularity. Putin was in a remarkable position, both working for a popular anti-coup leader while retaining his contacts with the security services which had planned the coup. There were also two other ex-KGB agents who Putin brought into the Sobchak administration: Viktor Ivanov and Igor Sechin. These two would stay with him through his rise to power and now form the main part of the powerful group inside of the Kremlin known as the siloviki – originally only members of the security services, but has come to include many allies who were never security agents. Unfortunately Sobchak was caught up in some inappropriate financial transactions and lost his 1996 re-election campaign. Putin and his aides went to work in Moscow for Pavel Borodin, a top-ranking member of Yeltsin’s presidential administration. This appointment is somewhat mysterious; Russian politics at the time point to the conclusion that this was not a meritocratic appointment – someone with some leverage must have wanted Putin to get that job.

Whatever the case may be, Putin soon gained the trust of President Yeltsin. This also must have increased his power within the security service community as one of the only ex-KGB agents at that level of government. In July 1998 he was named deputy head of the presidential administration, and a few weeks later he became the head of the FSB, the successor to the KGB. Again he found himself in a remarkable position with support from Yeltsin and his billionaire backers as well as the shadowy siloviki network. In August 1999 Yeltsin made Putin the Prime Minister. It may not have seemed significant at the time, as Yeltsin had shuffled many bureaucrats through that position, but Putin’s move to Prime Minister was the last major jump in his career. It was Putin’s running of the war in Chechnya that won him support from both Yeltsin and the Russian people. There have been allegations, notably by the recently deceased Alexander Litvinenko, that the FSB was responsible for apartment bombings which precipitated the escalation in Chechnya (Chechen rebels were blamed for the bombs).

A tired Boris Yeltsin resigned on December 31, 1999, leaving Putin as the acting President. Putin barely needed this political boost. His allies in the Duma had just made strong gains in the recent election. He enjoyed the backing of Boris Berezovsky, the billionaire tycoon who had also backed Yeltsin. He easily won the election on March 26, 2000. One of his main opponents, Yevgeny Primakov, another former Prime Minister, dropped out in February and became an ally and advisor to Putin. He was able to easily defeat Communist leader Gennady Zhuganov; Zhuganov had done very well in the 1996 election but his party weakened as Russia stabilized somewhat in the late 1990's. The Communists had done badly in the same 1999 Duma elections that had seen Putin's allies gain seats.

No one knew what to expect from Vladimir Putin when he assumed the office in 2000. To many he seemed to be just another faceless bureaucrat, in the right place at the right time. Russians hoped he could bring stability to a country still recovering from the violent economic shocks of the 1990s. His powerful supporters, the billionaires and the siloviki, were both sure he was on their side -- that he was their front man who could assure that their vision for Russia would emerge in the new century. But it was only one vision that would matter -- the soberly ambitious vision of Vladimir Putin. He had been an ambitious child who wanted to become an intelligence agent, then an ambitious intelligence agent who wanted to make a place for himself in politics, and finally an ambitious politician who knew his place lay at the top. To fulfill ambitions for himself and for his country Putin would have to consolidate power by crafting political alliances on his terms -- and eliminating anyone who would not join him.

Voices from the Past

The author, with his mother and wife, displaying
his considerable diplomatic skills


“I Know How to Get the U.S. Out of Iraq”

By Harry Houdini (deceased)

It seems everyone these days has a plan for how to get the U.S. out of Iraq. Pull everyone out immediately, say some. No, say others, we’ve got to stay the course. We’ve got to talk to Iran and Syria, say some. No, say others, those guys support terror. Let’s back the Shiites, say some. No, the Sunnis are the key, say others. Idiots and nincompoops, the lot of them. They don’t know the first thing about escaping from dangerous situations. I bet Stephen Hadley couldn’t even get out of a pair of handcuffs on dry land, let alone suspended by the feet in a Chinese Water Torture Cell. I am the one with the greatest experience in these kinds of escapes. I know how to get the U.S. out of Iraq.

You might be asking yourself: “Didn’t that guy die, like, a long time ago? What help could he possibly offer us in this difficult modern geopolitical quagmire?” I would suggest you take a look at the people trying to solve this problem right now. Have you seen Henry Kissinger lately? Or James Baker, for that matter? They’re both one subpoena away from kicking the bucket. Those guys probably came to see me perform back in the Twenties – with their grandchildren. Alright, you’re saying, but what does Harry Houdini know about Iraq? It was just a three-part British mandate broken off of the Ottoman Empire after World War I when he died in 1926. For goodness sake the Hashemite Kingdom of Faisal, which was eventually overthrown by the army in 1958 leading to a period of chaotic leadership resolved by Saddam Hussein’s seizure of total power in 1979, wouldn’t even be established for another six years! What could the old Houdini know about Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, insurgent attacks, theocratic politics and oil revenue? Well I’ll tell you what I do know about: getting out of tough jams. In that spirit, I present these three points of advice for today’s leaders.

Number One: It’s All in the Name. You’ve got to distract everyone with fancy names. Do you know what my real name was? Ehrich Weiss. A lot of Jew, not very much magician. So I changed it to Harry Houdini. And thus a brilliant career ensued. We need to show the world what we’re really trying to do there. The “U.S. Army” doesn’t really emphasize the reason why we have all those troops there -- to liberate the people of Iraq, and with the “U.S.” stuck in there it sounds too imperialist. It should be renamed the “People’s Liberation Army”. I think that really covers all the bases.

Number Two: Maximize your Strengths and Minimize your Weaknesses. Ask yourself, what is the U.S. good at? Showmanship. Americans are the ultimate entertainers. We should bring all the local and regional leaders to a huge international conference where they will be inundated with live stage shows, talking-picture movies with beautiful women, and a smorgasbord of American culinary delicacies. Then they will be so satiated that they will agree to whatever we offer. And as for our weakness? We are obviously not very good at military occupation, so we should end that as soon as possible.

Number Three: Always Have a Fail-safe Exit Strategy. I guess it’s a little late for that one. But I hope you have all taken what I’ve said to heart. I do have to end this session now as my spirit is being called into a séance with a certain desperate high-ranking government official whose name may or may not rhyme with Gondoleeza Mice. Just remember this: the United States of America is a great country which stands up for all that is decent and democratic in this world of chaos. Or at least it was.

In The Beginning...

This website will, in sickness and in health, be devoted to analyzing events around the world, making fun of world leaders and other somewhat respected figures, and generally mixing a dazzling array of images and wit with serious analysis of aforementioned events and leaders into a totally unrecognizable and gelatinous soup of words and pictures similar, if only in its delicious aroma, to shrimp gumbo.

The First (1st) Edition is scheduled to debut on December the Second, 2006. Until then, Happy Thanksgiving. May Bush spare us all.