Friday, December 31, 2010

This Year In Democracy

2010 has given us some spectacular shows of democracy -- successes and failures alike. Some were famous, their effects felt and heard 'round the world. Others not quite so attention-grabbing; perhaps a pair of AP wire stories and a brief mention in a cable news text scroll. And, of course, we hear more about the failures than the successes, with Cote D'Ivoire the most recent nation to slip into post-election bloodshed. Globalized Democracy® in the post-Cold War period has certainly not proven to be the panacea some were expecting. However, as always, neither the rose-eyed optimists nor the doom-and-gloom pessimists have everything right. Many blooming democracies have been crushed under the foot of military power grabs or wilted under a corrupt and incompetent state apparatus despite international support. And yet at the same time many countries have found ways to not only bring decades of dictatorship or war to a peaceful close, but also to embrace an open society and forge functioning democratic institutions. Here is a look at ten of this past year's less-heralded success stories (in chronological order):

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"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want,
and deserve to get it good and hard."
--H.L. Mencken


1. Croatia

Ivo Jospovic of the left-wing Social Democratic Party wins the presidential election in a landslide, replacing popular outgoing president Stjepan Mesic, the leader of the right-center party. Mesic had been in power since the end of Tudjman regime which had presided over Croatia's bloody involvement in the region's wars during the 1990s. This election further solidifies democracy in Croatia, and helps in their delayed but ongoing negotiations for accession into the European Union.

2. Chile

Sebastian Piñera of the right-center National Renewal party narrowly defeated former President Eduardo Frei of the left-center Concert of Parties for Democracy in the presidential election to succeed popular outgoing president Michelle Bachelet. This was the fifth consecutive democratic presidential election in Chile, and cements their civilian institutions even further after the 1973-1990 military rule of Pinochet.

3. Ukraine

Viktor Yanukovych defeats Yulia Tymoshenko and incumbent Viktor Yushchenko in the presidential election, representing a shift towards Russia and away from the 2004 Orange Revolution which had originally brought Tymoshenko and Yushchenko to power. These two had grown apart during their time as Prime Minister and President, respectively. This time there was no uprising of "people power", as Tymoshenko dropped her appeal a few weeks after the elections. Ukraine's politics are still wracked with corruption and less-than-democratic Russian influences, but a peaceful, democratic transition of power is never a bad thing.

4. Iraq

Okay, not the least-heralded of 2010 elections, but it's significance may have been underestimated. Iraq held parliamentary elections in March that resulted in a political deadlock that set a record for length (207 days between election and creation of government) but did not result in widespread violence. The voting blocs of Allawi and Maliki, both former Prime Ministers, received the most support, but neither had enough to form a government. Complicated negotiations and machinations followed, with resolution not achieved until October. Nonetheless this election represents a strong step towards productive democracy in Iraq. The individual actors, on the whole, did not resort to violence during the difficult negotiations -- perhaps setting the bar a bit low, but progress is progress.

5. Poland

Bronislaw Komorowski defeats Jaroslaw Kaczynski to become President just two months after a plane crash killed the former President -- Kaczynski's twin brother Lech -- along with many other senior members of the government. The Polish voters showed political maturity by voting with their opinions and not their emotions, and the nation is moving past the worst tragedy in recent history.

6. Colombia

Juan Manuel Santos, former Defense Minister of outgoing President Uribe, defeats surprise Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus, former Mayor of Bogota. The relatively easy Santos victory is a sign that Uribe's right-center policies are well-liked and will continue. An open, peaceful election is still something not taken for granted in this long-suffering country. Colombia's political scene has broken free from the widespread and violent influence of narco-traffickers -- the same cannot be said for some of its Central American neighbors.

7. Kyrgyzstan

In June Kyrgyz voters approved a referendum which limited the powers of the presidency and any single parliamentary party. The 'Yes' vote was 91% with over 70% voter turnout. This referendum was a reaction to the events of April, when anti-government riots forced then-President Bakiyev (who himself had come to power in the 2005 Tulip Revolution) to resign. The country's political future is by no means certain, but every fair election adds to people's trust in the system.

8. Kenya

Kenyan voters approved a new constitution by a 68%-31% margin, and over 70% voter turnout. Kenyan politics have been at a wary standstill ever since the violence which followed the fraudulent 2007 Presidential election. The top vote-getters in that election, President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga, are currently ensconced in a power-sharing agreement. The approval of this constitution is an important step towards rebuilding a functional democracy and allowing for some national healing.

9. Bosnia

Voters elected representatives to Bosnia's tripartite political system, with Bosnians, Croats, and Serbs all having somewhat separate branches. The election seemed to confirm similar levels of political deadlock in the country, with moderates favoring further national unification facing off against mainly Croat and Serb nationalists who want division along ethnic lines. This country suffered terribly during the 1990s, and while this election may not provide an immediate solution to these intransigent problems, continued political haggling is far superior to a resumption of violence.

10. Guinea

Guinean voters placed their trust in Alpha Conde, a 72 year-old former opposition leader, to take the presidency after a long period of political turmoil and the threat of renewed conflict. The country had been in the hands of a shifting military junta since the death of strongman Lansana Conte in December 2008. this period was marred by human rights violations, the attempted assassination of the first military leader, and the repeated postponing of elections. The country is still in the political woods, but this election -- most notably the decision by runner-up Cellou Diallo to concede defeat instead of urging his supporters to the streets -- is a step and a hop away from the edge of the abyss.

Honorable Mentions: The Philippines and Brazil
Both of these countries had successful presidential elections in 2010, but the relatively reliable nature of their democratic processes keeps them off the top ten success stories.

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It is important to recognize these success stories, and this can be done without marginalizing the extremely difficult situations that face the many countries that experienced recent political disasters. Democracy is not easy. There are many people who need to do their job right for an election to work even on the most basic mechanical level. Poll workers are a rarely celebrated breed, but in countries like those mentioned above their work deserves respect and recognition. In the post-Bush doctrine world it has become fashionable to downplay "democracy" as a good unto itself. To be sure, the act of holding elections will not solve deep-seated issues (see: Afghanistan, Russia, etc.). Elections may in fact put a dangerous level of stress on a weak status quo, letting loose the blood-dimmed tide (see: Cote D'Ivoire, Haiti, etc.). Elections may simply act as a cover -- a fake doctor's note, if you will -- for authoritarian regimes with no real interest in sharing power (see: Sri Lanka, Burundi, Rwanda, etc.).

And yet the open society which democracy both encourages and requires IS a good unto itself, and well worth the aforementioned risks. Even a good dictator cannot last forever, and at some point in the near future of every country and every people on earth they will need to deal with the conflicts which grow like mushrooms under the whole of human society. The more these conflicts -- be they based on religion, ethnicity, resources, or any other divide -- are suppressed, the greater the possibility that upon exposure they will cause death and destruction. Iraq after the fall of Saddam and the former Yugoslavia during the 1990s are examples of this danger. However, Iraq, Croatia, and Bosnia are also on the list of 2010 electoral successes, a testament to the perseverance of the democratic forces in those countries.

Democracy is often ugly and slow. It is not the ideal system for effective decision-making. But it provides something which no other political system can: the opportunity for political maturity. We cannot hope for long-term stability and peace unless groups and individuals in conflict can appear together -- in a courtroom, in a public square (analog or digital), or on a ballot -- and have it out. There is no substitute (excepting ethnic cleansing). But courtrooms, public square, and ballots don't grow on trees and should never be taken for granted. Democracy is slow and ugly and it's hard work, no metaphor needed. So let's celebrate these ten success stories from 2010, and hope that 2011 will bring us even more.

Oh, and kitties.


8 comments:

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13. United States of America. The Rough Beast Party, no slouch in election tactics, harvested America's rich crop of imperial anxiety to win a victory at the polls that guarantees the continuation of the same agricultural policies. In a related story, by lack of any concerted effort in opposition, the other nations ratified America's continued role as World Police.

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