Saturday, February 7, 2009

Episode IV in Somalia?

Practice Question #1
Claude Monet :: Impressionist painter
Somalia :: _______

a) Octuplet-bearing California woman
b) Locale for new Johnny Depp movie, Pirates of the Gulf of Aden
c) The not-as-cute Jonas Brother
d) Failed state

Remember to show your work!

.........................

Please read Erratum Terrium's previous article on Somalia for background on the current situation (or if you need a study guide for Practice Question #1).

Last week Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected "President"* of Somalia, replacing the departed "President"*, Abdullahi Yusuf. Ahmed, as loyal Erratum Terrium readers may remember, was the political leader of the ICU (Union of Islamic Courts) -- which as its name suggests, is a loose confederation of sharia advocates. The ICU created a militia, which was able to wrest control of much of southern and central Somalia from various warlords during 2005 and 2006. They were able, for a short time, to bring a semblance of order to this land wracked by constant turmoil and disaster since 1991 (if not longer). Ethiopia invaded shortly after this order was established, suffered through an Iraqesque occupation, and have just finished withdrawing their troops in the past few weeks**.

Ahmed, an English-speaking former schoolteacher, is the country's best chance for peace. This is unfortunate for him. Men of peace do not have a long life span in this part of the world. According to the BBC, the presidential palace was hit by mortars on his first day there. The Al-Shabab militia, an off-shoot of ICU resistance to Yusuf's transitional government, has expressed no desire to work with Ahmed despite shared Islamist values. International reaction to Ahmed has been cool, despite his urgent appeals for aid.

A few days ago US Vice President Biden outlined a "new tone" for foreign policy under the Obama Administration***. Part of this new tone must be a reconsideration of the Bush Administration's blind opposition to Islamist politics. Political Islam contains a wide spectrum of beliefs and goals, and we can not continue to put any Muslim who speaks ill of the United States or advocates sharia into the same category as Osama Bin Laden. This mentality creates unnecessary enemies and wastes opportunities for our democracy-loving country to foster positive political developments in Muslim countries. To be sure, there are many Islamist groups who support terrorist acts and encourage abuse of women, children, and ethnic minorities. We cannot become blind to their reprehensible actions in our effort to legitimize Islamist politics. It is a delicate balancing act. Some would suggest that it is naive to think we can win over these hard-core America-haters with some sacks of rice. And they are right to be critical. But it is far more naive to believe that we can expand our circle of allies when we refuse to deal with political groups who don't already fit our narrow prerequisites. Metaphorized version: You will not win any converts preaching to the choir.

Somalia would be a great place to listen to Biden's "new tone" in US foreign policy music. Ahmed's new government needs international support, and it would not cost us much geopolitical capital to provide that support. We cannot guarantee success by acting, but not acting may guarantee failure. I need not quote Gandhi here. Instead I will offer this quote:

"...Today everyone thinks he or she is right and doesn't want to dialogue. We must abandon this culture. We must sit together, talk and come up with solutions to our problems. That is the best way forward."

Well said, Mr. President-Elect.

....................................

* The "President" of Somalia rarely exercises control over most of the country, most notably in the northern autonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland.
** Withdrawal subject to further considerations (see Platt Amendment).
*** It is still a little exciting to say, type, read, or think the words: "the Obama Administration".

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm not so sure about your appeasement strategy for Islamists. Theocracy sucks, especially when so much "shovel ready" sharia is invariantly vicious and oppressive. What's needed is probably not politically feasible: encourage the modernizers and secularizers in Rich Islam (e.g., Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran) while using aid as a mitigating lever in Poor Islam.

Oh, and de-fund the right-wing faith-based initiatives here.

Anonymous said...

You're right, theocracy sucks. But denying the legitimacy of Islamist principles and politics will get us nowhere fast. Imagine what India would be like if we had forced the Congress party to supress the BJP -- the Hindu nationalists would have been forced underground, and it's entirely plausible that they would have started a war with Pakistan.
And we did not win the Cold War because we suppressed Communist parties around the world. We won because there was something inherently wrong with their system. Time is on our side, as long as we practice what we preach.
The secularizers are great, but too often they lack legitimacy and make up for that with extra helpings of the secret police (see Egypt). Political pluralism is our best bet -- look at Turkey or Bangladesh.

Interested Observer said...

I don't think the editor was proposing an "appeasement strategy" but rather one based on the realities of a world that is much more complicated than most acknowledge.